Sergey Egishjants, "Speeches long, empty..."
Last week has presented such abundance of vast and figurative speeches that though stand, though fall Good afternoon. The political outline of the past week basically consisted of flows of words of officials of different level habitual already nowadays – quite empty, though also plentiful; in general, the picture of more or less developed world more and more resembles the late USSR – eyebrows black, dense, speeches long, empty. From the other we will note unusually soft performance of head the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Cuba of Rodriguez, in every way letting know that its country wants to normalise relations from the USA; Americans have told we "will look", having caused full of anger and sarcasm Fidel Castro's rebuff. Other problems at the authorities of the Peoples Republic of China – they have called the dalaj-llama "not reinkarnirovatsja in whom has got": the Tibetan chief is old, it is time to search for the successor – but that not aby in whom to be embodied, and only in the one who will be confirmed by the Peking government! Such here "a sovereign Lamaism", panimash.
Euro-bazuka
The monetary markets. Last week has presented such abundance of vast and figurative speeches that though stand, though fall. The twenty and IMF gathered in last days off – as always, the result impresses: it is informed that "the world economy is included into a dangerous phase" (and who could think!), and it demands "the extreme vigilance, the co-ordinated and courageous actions" (IMF); world leaders "keep fidelity to principles of the resolute and co-ordinated actions at the international level in reply to the new difficulties which have arisen in world economy" (Twenty) – so we will admire freshness of thought and strength of mind of global bureaucracy! Relay race has picked up ETSB – trustee Iv Mersh has declared that hope of rate cutting nerealistichna:" Similar unrestrained expectations show that at some – the feeling of orientation to the north was gone in compass ETSB only one arrow "; about, what figurativeness! – but also it not all. Lorentso Bini-Smagi, colleague Mersha by operating council, has assured everything that at Central Bank is"bazuka"! – and though supposedly the monetary policy is not panacea, however" second Lemana "all was to be avoided. The most ridiculous that the word"bazuka"was used in July, 2008 by the head of Exchequer of the USA of that time Henry Polson, asking from the Congress of money for the plan of the help to the markets:" When at you in a pocket bazuka, and people know it, probably, you should not apply it "at all; however in practice just after that there was crash Lehman Brothers – and has gone-has gone. It seems that we are waited by repetition passed then – but that to such degree"literal"repetition!?
Illustration: artyom Priests, Ah Ti Invest
According to Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, the IMF wants to expand the balance almost in one and a half time; thus it is rumored that really the Fund hopes on where bolshee increase – for what money? And here the Minister of Finance of the USA Timoti Gajtner has let out – he has joyfully declared in teleinterview that "to death has frightened EU"; when it became known, of what exactly has frightened, even worldly-wise experts have opened mouths from amazement – it appears, Gajtner has offered... pospekulirovat on European stabfond! Many speculators in the financial markets have marzhinalnye accounts – with which help it is possible to open positions more than on them is money: the broker gives "shoulder" – but in case of adverse movement of the price in the market declares "marzhin-koll" and compulsorily closes positions. And so, it is advised by the American swindler – a pier, give out from fund loans with a shoulder 10: Create credit derivativy for which stabfond will serve as pledge – and flood monetary system with several trillions virtual euros (really they are not present). Fridmanizm in the perverted form: if to print it is a lot of money all will be adjusted – and will not be "marzhin-kollov"; and if will be? This idea was at the Timoshki-swindler even in stay by head FRB of New York in 2008 – then the Congress has considered its unacceptable, but the passion to a cheating at Gajtnera does not die away. Germans were indignant and named the plan "silly idea" – having advised the USA to put things in order at itself and only after that to give advice another. Council is good: such prozhekty have already created mortgage chaos with which States have not understood till now.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Great Britain has declared:" The eurozone is a burning building without possibility to leave it; the situation in it resembles mass insanity "– what to hear such from a semi-official organ? The Greek Ministry of Finance pathetically exclaims that-de if not to rescue Greece all eurozone will be lost – and for rescue it is necessary to create" the euro-Atlantic axis ": probably, that everyones gajtnery could realise free the of swindle. The Athenian parliament has accepted the next package of measures of rigid economy – including increase of the tax to habitation; new strike has gone to the answer – all habitually. The reality is that: the country state debt has grown in 2011 on 10 % of gross national product and has reached already 150 %; because of" rigid economy "the economy has fallen this year already to 7 % (and it not a limit), and unemployment has increased to 16 %; deficiency of the balance of payments makes 8 % of gross national product; investors deduce money from country banks; profitablenesses of short bonds above 100 % annual – all it obviously are worse, than was in Russia in the summer of 1998 so the default is inevitable. The head of German institute IFO Hans-Verner Zinn has confirmed it with simple logic: the trouble of Greece in deficiency of the balance of payments because of low competitiveness – to restore last it is possible only with the help polutorakratnoj for a deflation of the prices and salaries that, certainly, it is impossible; so, it is necessary to cancel euro, to return drachma, to translate in it a debt of the country and devalvirovat currency. Sooner or later it happens – for now Germans grumble on "the rescue plan"; the Austrian member of ETSB Evald Novotny even has warned that Germany is lonely"– and she can indulge in protectionism.
Eurozone banks have sent on deposits in ETSB the record sums, being afraid to trust them each other through interbank loans. Banks of the USA have amicably entered the commissions for payments from debit cards – consumers are dissatisfied. In Asia, Latin America and the Eastern Europe issue of corporate bonds in the third quarter has failed four times by April-June – to the sums, the worst from crisis peak in the beginning of 2009. In August on a quarter the percent on the mortgage bonds nominated in yuans "Dim Sum" which China lets out in Hong Kong has grown – profitablenesses have jumped up almost to 6 %, record for this tool. In States decide what to do further – Bernanke has declared that hardly inflation will drop, it is possible to begin a new wave of issue: who would doubt. But in most FRS scepticism grows: trustee Sara Blum Raskin it is dissatisfied with idea to cause inflation for economy revival – and results of already spent actions of monetary softening do not inspire; Head FRB of Saint Louis James Bullard has joined it – and only its colleague from Chicago Charles Evans agrees all; and after all this Benn-helicopter pilot's all supporters – what to speak about dissidents? Presidents FRB of Dallas and Philadelphia Richard Fisher and Charles Plosser are assured that "Operation the Twist" is harmful, instead of is useful – it will not rescue a labour market. But issue all is more probable everywhere – numbers of supporters grow in Bank of England (David Majls and Spenser Dejl). Placings kaznacheek last week everywhere went badly – even Germany has faced extremely slack demand for the 5-year-old papers. In general, crisis continues to develop actively.
The currency markets. Euro has fallen to new bottoms nearby 1.3350, but then it has begun to be corrected; the basic currencies have won back a small part of losses of the last week – then the dollar began to grow again. A pure short position under noncommercial futures for uniform European currency as of first half of last week has reached tops from the beginning of June, 2010 – that can promise more appreciable rebound on a covering of these positions, though and not the fact that right now." Commodity currencies "in avant-guard of falling – the Australian and Canadian dollars have updated annual bottoms to a dollar. The senate of the USA forthcoming week will vote for influence measures to the Peoples Republic of China in connection with currency manipulations – if the law is accepted, in the future all tariffs for import of the Chinese goods should include additional punishments for the underestimated yuan. The rouble has reached against dollar to 32.5, and against euro – to 44.0; but then poduspokoilsja – thus reserves of Bank of Russia for 3 weeks have grown thin for 17.4 billion dollars.
Source: SmartTrade
Stock markets hardly have corrected former falling – then again have vertically fallen down: a situation dangerous – so, the French index CAC-40 of all for last 3 months has won back all growth from bottoms of 2009. Spain has prolonged an interdiction for short sales of actions, and Italy has made the same for papers of financial sector. Last continues to be in a fever: hedges-funds are ready to fix fair losses in the third quarter – for example, at fund GLG Partners belonging to the world's largest management company Man Group, has arisen loss in 3 billion dollars; the group as a whole has more than loss – actives were compressed with 71 to 65 billion we Will note still resignation of the head of bank UBS Osvalda Grjubelja – to that promoted huge (2.3 billion dollars) loss the trader-adventurer about what we wrote in the review before last; predictably, temporary managing director Serdzhio Ermotti will be fairly compelled to cut down employment in a number of key divisions of bank. Dismissals go not only in financial firms, but on all economy – for example, in Britain the major concern of defensive industry BAE Systems declared reduction of 3000 workplaces; continuation of this process will by all means follow.
Source: SmartTrade
The commodity markets. Oil and industrial metals were stabilised after a collapse of the last week – however, they have not shown special propensity to growth. Precious metals on Monday have shown new minima (gold – 1530 dollars for ounce, silver – 26) then too have calmed down. Grain and leguminous products, a forage and vegetable oil have continued decrease though and much more slowly former – an exception again was rice which and has not been inclined to fall before, and now and has at all stopped. Other picture in animal industries: milk was stabilised, and beef and pork have gone upwards. Sugar has slightly risen in price also – but rather weakly the clap looks. From news it is possible to note searches at offices of gas firms across all Europe – the Third power package prohibits many features, favourite monopolists; Gazprom in grief – its affiliated companies more all is suspected of abusings.
Castling
Asia and Ocenia. Economic indicators continue to worsen – and decrease by agencies Fitch and S&P a rating of the seeming safe New Zealand only confirms gravity of problems. Industrial production of Japan in August has grown twice more poorly expectations, and the indicator of business activity in September for the first time for 5 months has left in recession area. The index of business conditions of the Australian commercial and industrial chamber in the third quarter has plunged more deeply into a recession zone; the New Zealand business trust in September has again fallen – and in China industrial activity the third month in a minus. The trading balance of New Zealand in August has left in deficiency, and the Japanese prices for corporate services – in a deflation; consumer prices in plus thanks to rising in price fuel. The habitation prices in Australia continued to decrease in July-September; sales of new buildings stagnirovali; building licences in New Zealand skip there-here. Japanese unemployment has unexpectedly decreased at once on 0.4 % - but these are statistics tricks: employment in the country too was considerably reduced. Retails in Japan quickly worsen: if in July they were compressed on 0.3 % a month in August – already on 1.7 %, and annual dynamics has left plus in a minus at once on 2.6 %; the general expenses of households now on 4.1 % more low, than one year ago.
Europe. The definitive estimation of gross national product of France in the second quarter has confirmed economy stagnation – private consumption has fallen down 0.7 %, stimulation programs have been hardly curtailed. The business trust in Italy in September has reached a minimum since January, 2010; the German index of a business climate has noted a bottom since June of last year; economic moods in an eurozone were rolled away to bottoms since December, 2009, and the business climate has fallen to an annual minimum. But in September in an eurozone inflation was unexpectedly accelerated: in Germany consumer prices vspuhli on 2.6 % a year, in Spain and an eurozone – on 3.0 %, in Italy – on 3.5 % (peak since autumn of 2008). Has surprised launch of annual growth of monetary weight М3 in an eurozone; and in Britain the widest unit (М4) still looks beaten – however, crediting there is still impressive thanks to low rates of the market and comparative cheapness of habitation out of London. Moods of consumers are bad everywhere – in Italy in September the next deterioration; More or less Germans keep only. All is logical – incomes of Italians strongly lag behind inflation, and employment strives to decrease; and in Germany all on the contrary – in September happens the next appreciable reduction of unemployment. However, real demand very much also is very weak: the Spanish retail in a minus on 4.4 % a year, British continues to be compressed, and German has fallen down 2.9 % a month (an antirecord since May, 2007); expenses of Frenchmen have grown on 0.2 %, only having won back the same recession of the last month, and in Switzerland the consumption indicator has fallen to area of bottoms of the previous recessions (2002/03 and 2008/09 of years).
America. Gross national products of the USA have reconsidered hardly upwards – total +0.3 % for a quarter and +1.6 % for a year; if to consider defljator it is realistic, will be–0.3 % and–1.1 %, and per capita–0.5 % and–1.9 %. Salaries and pensions on one occupied with the inflation account – the main source of demand – falls already more than 11 years; in this time they were compressed on 23.5 % and have reached a bottom from the second quarter 1962. Orders for the goods of long using in the USA have fallen in August to 0.1 % after jumping up on 4.1 % in July; an indicator civil planes (strongly deform +23.5 % after +49.9 %, by last year growth almost three times) – without the account of transport orders have decreased on 0.1 % after growth on 0.7 % one month earlier. Regional indexes of industrial activity in the USA are gloomy: only indicator FRB Kansas City has returned from a minus to plus – the others have worsened or simply remained in a minus (only Chicago PMI has improved); new orders are bad. The prices for habitation in the USA from S&P/Case-Shiller have ceased to fall in the summer, but also did not grow (0.0 % in June, +0.1 % in July); annual dynamics in a minus on 4.0-4.5 %. Sales of new buildings of drop 4 months on end, having reached a minimum for half a year, despite reduction of prices; not complete sales of secondary habitation too have turned downwards (-1.3 % in July,-1.2 % in August). Moods of consumers from Conference Board are weak – a share of those it is difficult to whom to find work, is maximum since May, 1983; similar indicator Bloomberg has fallen to bottoms since January, 2009. Real incomes and expenses in August were compressed – and if to consider inflation normally, dynamics here breath-taking (–0.6 % and–0.3 % a month,-1.5 % and–1.3 % a year): demand continues to fall.
Source: Bureau of the economic analysis of the USA, independent estimations
Russia. Delay of growth of monetary weight М2 proceeds (the annual increase on bottoms since January, 2010) is thus that the consumer credit has inflated a fair bubble. Reserves of banks even faster fall – their relation to deposits poste restante in August has shown a record minimum, and 12-month's average has approached to bottoms 1998 and 2008: that was in two previous cases, it is not necessary to remind, probably, – it is necessary to ascertain only that the history learns Bank of Russia to nothing, therefore he, apparently, at all is not excited with that fact that the bank system of the country again in the maximum degree is subject to risk of a lack of current liquidity (for example, in case of a panic of investors). All it on periphery of the general attention – in which centre has appeared castling of a ruling tandem: Putin becomes the president, and Medved will go to premieres – well and what here interesting? Only Kudrin was raised on business – speak, what exactly to it some years promised a government post of the head, and now "have thrown"; the offended official has declared (in Washington!) that to Medvedu will not go to the Office – and the angered president has expelled the Minister of Finance.
Source: Bank of Russia
The vacant post replaces deputy minister Siluanov, and to help it is called (as the curator) the first vice-premier Shuvalov – evil tongues, having considered its reputation specific even against a ruling kleptocracy, assure that it is an ideal illustration of a saying "put the cat near the goldfish bowl"; knowing people designate in the future to the Ministry of Finance head Minzdravsotsrazvitija Golikovu – however, the biography "madam Arbidol" the little is better. The mayor of Moscow Sobjanin took the new adviser is Gabriel Popov: this shot was noted by ideas to legalise a bribe and to found the world government for collecting at the states of their natural resources, and also prizyvaniem spirit of general Vlasova – with such assistant and tile packing will go more cheerfully. Putin has met writers: razvlekatelshchitsy have taken offence at the term "easy reading matter" about the masterpieces; on a question on friend Timchenko of premieres has assured that that has developed the business itself (the author of a question have there and then deprived of a teleether on the state channel); Archimandrite Shevkunov waits that Putin will operate God and common sense; as the messenger of God considers the prime minister and Marmots – for it it have awarded with a medal of Stolypina. Army reform proceeds: now in it will cancel perlovku, pshyonku and Kalashnikov's automatic machine – to see, about same "reforms" wait also all country at the new-old president.
Illustration: artyom Priests, Ah Ti Invest
Good to you of week!
Source: itinvest.ru
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