The review of the world markets for 2 - on October, 8th, 2011

Sergey Egishjants, "Postchristian conservatism"
Well and how to you all this pre-election Decameron? And after all to elections even 2 months!

Good afternoon. The policy last week developed before disgust habitually. The rating of a Japanese Office always moves under the accurate scenario: right after changes of the prime minister it appears maximum, and then starts to fall vigorously – here and government Noda initially supported 62.8 % of the population (according to poll Kyodo), and all a month later this size has decreased to 54.6 %; be continued In Britain conference тори has taken place – where their leader Cameron has suggested to equate co-habitation содомитов to marriage:" I support unisex marriages because I the conservative "– yes,"progress"indeed goes with great strides for" conservatives for a paederasty "in a little Christian world were unimaginable. Founder Apple Steve Jobs has died past Wednesday – the rare businessman is capable to receive panegyrics at once from US presidents and Russia, but in this case it has occurred. Meanwhile, Apple has started updating of fourth Ajfona, having confused Chineses: the last already"have created"fifth Ajfon (it is on sale in the Peking markets) – and it has turned out that pirates too have far got поперёд штатовского fathers. Climatic cataclysms spread: over Arctic regions has arisen mighty (in 2 million in sq. km) an ozone gap because of more and more cold winters in a stratosphere (at height of 20 km an ozone layer истончился впятеро against normal values); but in Britain enchanting autumn – on October, 1st in London (on envy to the Bahamas and Mexico) there were 30 degrees of a heat!

New parade of issues

The monetary markets. Week of Central Banks left substantial. The bank of England has left the rate at former level of 0.5 % annual, but has expanded the program of purchase of bonds on 75 billion pounds – having complained about slackness of world economy, deterioration of export and debt crisis in Europe. It seems that this beginning of a new trend – is simple Londoners, as always, more bright others. ЕЦБ has left percent on a place, but has decided to increase закачку liquidities: in October and December will be рефинансироваться banks – and in the unlimited size (how many will ask, so much and will receive); credits will be given to them and during all first half of the year 2012; except that, the Central Bank begins to buy up the bonds which have been given out on the security of different actives (including real estate). By the way, it was last regular session ЕЦБ which Jean-Claude Trishe operated – on October, 31st it leaves from the post, and over November meeting Mario of the Drag will already supervise. The reserve bank of Australia yet did not begin to change anything – but has let know that if the situation in economy will worsen, the monetary policy can be softened at once. And only the Bank of Japan has not changed anything – and did not promise to make it later (has only grumbled a little on yen). Head ФРС Ben Bernanke has acted in the Congress – he has let know that is ready to continue issue, and at the same time has warned about harm of the budgetary sequester: both these of the thesis have forced republicans to become green from fury; Benn's forecasts are gloomy – he expects the further delay in economy. Logically decision of the world's largest fund of bonds PIMCO – he more does not play this background on growth of profitableness of exchequer bonds, but, on the contrary, waits for deflationary decrease in percent on all market.

In Europe with simplification have apprehended the agency decision S&P to confirm ratings of Portugal and Britain – the first even have praised for severity performed by the plan of EU and IMF. But the picture was spoilt by Mudi – it cut off a rating of Italy at once on 3 points (that nobody expected), having upheld the negative forecast; and then has lowered ratings of 12 British and 15 Portuguese banks – at one stroke 27 побивахом! Greeks wanted was instead of a default to spend an exchange of the bonds which are subject to repayment the next years, for fresh bonds with reference term in... 100 years – but it too so the idea has not caused enthusiasm. The Athenian Ministry of Finance assured everything that money to it will allocate just about – but was soon found out that actually Greeks have once again broken promises of reduction of deficiency: the justification is charming – a pier, our economy falls so quickly that we have not time to reduce treasury expenditure with such speed; think, what disappointment! And still the majority of the EU countries votes for reform стабфонда and the help of Ellade – but Slovakia has declared that it is absolutely unacceptable, while Greece has not ceased to apply for euro-money; and in general, to declare better to it a default – all the same it it is inevitable. Greeks have taken offence – but have there and then declared that money in treasury it is enough to the middle not October (as all considered), and November: and now euro-officials can indulge in hobby – to putting off of all important questions in the conditions of disagreements in the environment. But eventually all of them should make the decision!

Illustration: Артём Priests, Ah Ti Invest

The next problems in bank system: on the verge of bankruptcy there was an ex-Belgian group Dexia – it was necessary to the governments and Central Banks of two countries (with the assistance of Luxembourg) urgently to rescue company, having poured in in it a necessary portion of liquidity. However, the situation in bank is hopeless – therefore it should be re-structured: bad actives (according to the experts, it at least 125 billion euro) will go to "bad bank" which will receive the state guarantees of Belgium and France; the rest will be divided into pieces and sold – if, of course, there will be buyers. Meanwhile, the Spanish banks are afraid that the new governments of regions the countries which come to power after recent elections and have found out unexpectedly large tears in budgets, can declare simply defaults under the obligations – only till the end of the year they need to extinguish debts on 7 billion euro (from them half is necessary to Catalonia) which in treasury are not present. All it has convinced the euro-heads that affairs are bad – and it is necessary рекапитализировать region banks: commissioner Olli Ren has started talking about "the co-ordinated approach" in strengthening of a financial system of an eurozone – and the euro-director of IMF Borches has already estimated requirement of banks for the additional capital for 100-200 billion euro. By the way, banks of the USA, despite a good mine, play too badly – swaps of a credit default at them are close to that at the Spanish and Italian colleagues; has noticed Mudi that rating Morgan Stanley should be on 6 points below flowing – but agencies are afraid to result штатовские ratings in a reality. It will come to no good!

The currency markets. Hearings about intention of the Swiss national bank again have gone to lift lower bound of an admissible range of a course euro-franc from 1.20 till – therefore franc has slightly fallen in price. Judging by balance of Central Bank, the sum of its positions with which help it was possible to develop growth of national currency, has made about 100 billion dollars, or 20 % of gross national product of the country – only such huge price it was possible to break a market excessive demand. The pound has fallen after session of Bank of England – and there and then has again grown; in the rest форекс was at a stop. The rouble continued to fall – and in the leading countries big banks have moved apart spreads in quotations of the Russian currency, and even at all refuse to accept it; the Bank of Russia carries out interventions (for September reserves were compressed on 28.2 billion dollars) and pacifies a panic – as a whole unsuccessfully. However, to our authorities it is far to Natsbank of Ukraine which has forbidden any exchange in the country without a passport presentation – cunning that the passport could be only an Ukrainian so foreign tourists could not buy grivna in local banks. But while Europeans tried to make something, refusing to believe that probably so idiotic order, visitors from Russia did not lose time for nothing – and corrupted cashiers in exchangers; it was necessary НБУ to resolve a presentation of passports of the foreign states urgently. "Well though allow an exchange of the small sums of currency without the passport" – asked everything, and НБУ has taken pity: now it is possible for the sums more low... 1 rouble (either 1 dollar, or 1 euro) for what even will put new cash dispenses – evil tongues assure that the commission in them will be much more than the exchanged sum. Мда...

Stock markets. Волатильность at stock exchanges it is high – and even more it at options "пут": participants of the market are afraid of a collapse. However indexes, having noted new bottoms, have sharply jumped aside from them – Dow descended in 10400 and has flown away in 11200. To banks it is bad: Dexia has failed below 1 euro for the action; Deutsche Bank has warned about low profit in the third quarter – and this beginning only of a season of the reports starting the next week. And here also gloomy hearings wander – for example, there were fears of bankruptcy American Airlines because of what its actions wildly flied upwards-downwards. In general, optimism on expectations рекапитализации banks of an eurozone it is quite good, but the future recession in economy is more important, so about a turn даунтренда there is no also a speech though correction quite can and take place.

Source: Finance Yahoo

The commodity markets. Brent Neft fell in 99 dollars for barrel, and Light – in 75; then rebounds have followed. At Gazprom one problem for another – that Turkey sends far away Poland demands a discount: and the trouble that the monopoly has lagged behind a market train – its procedure of pricing is bulky and gives too high numbers whereas in the markets gas aggressively becomes cheaper. Metals (both industrial, and precious) have ceased to fall – however, the respite after a powerful blockage of the last weeks is quite natural. Speculative лонги on gold and silver from the beginning of year уполовинились – that can foretell fast finish of a case here: it is similar that was one week on euro (a multimonthly record pure шорта earlier) – in general, for speculators hard times come. Grain, leguminous, vegetable oil and forages continued to become cheaper, and meat – to rise in price; milk is more or less stable; the clap and wood too have calmed down.

Source: Barchart.com

Pre-election Decameron

Asia and Ocenia. The review of Bank of Japan Tankan has shown improvement of moods of business in comparison with that was after catastrophic earthquake – however, at small-scale business pessimism is rather great. Business activity in sphere of services of region submits life signs: in the Peoples Republic of China even improvement, Australia it was kept from a recession zone (however employment here is already reduced), but its industrial sector confidently in recession area, and building – even depressions. The August trading balance of Australia has considerably improved against July – but inflation does not recede; building licences grow – here only they turn to really constructed houses more and more reluctantly. Moods of Japanese consumers fall two quarters on end – as it is clear: salaries too decrease (in August-0.6 of % besides to month of last year). And here the car industry basically was restored after cataclysm – sales of new cars in September have grown on 1.7 % by September, 2010: And after all in August annual dynamics was in a minus already on 25.5 %. In Australia in July and August (retails grew in nominal expression – without the inflation account). What here a reality, was sounded by the head of branch association Russell Cimmerman: it has complained about norm of savings of the households, reached peak almost for quarter of the century and has urged Central Bank to cut off rates for consumption stimulation – but that did not begin to hasten.

Europe. Eurozone gross national product is confirmed as +0.2 % a quarter and +1.6 % a year; gross national products of Britain cut to +0.1 % and +0.6 % (January-March too have lowered), and expenses of households have fallen the worst rate from the beginning of 2009. The semi-official organ confirms, as if дефлятор was +2.4 % by April-June of last year – though even state numbers of the prices of manufacturers and consumers much above (+6.0 % and +4.5 %), and pure export makes less than 5 % of gross national product (and dynamics of the prices is similar and there). We will calculate real дефлятор; we will clean stocks, pure export and state expenses; we will consider population growth – and leaves that actually shower private internal demand was reduced to 0.9 % by January-March and on 3.4 % by April-June, 2010 – such is a reality of the present moment in world economy. Industrial production in Germany in August has fallen to 1.0 %; Industrial orders at Germans fall the second month successively – as a whole for July-August they have fallen to 4.8 % to average size of the last two months (internal – on 6.8 %, external – on 3.0 %). Business activity in an eurozone has left in a zone of recession in all sectors – as well as in Switzerland. British have pleased with unexpected jumping up in manufacture and sphere of services; but builders is in a fever – demand is weak, the prices fall: now they in a minus on 2.5-3.5 % a year; but the prices of manufacturers for 3-year-old peak. Street prices grew everywhere – even in Switzerland where activity of Central Bank bears fruit. In Spain seasonal growth of unemployment, and in Britain permanent – labour demand the lowest since summer of 2009. Sales in August fell – the eurozone has fallen to 0.3 % a month and 1.0 % a year (really is much worse): as a whole it is visible that from bottoms of 2009 have jumped aside poorly – and already again to them have returned.

Source: Евростат

America. Industrial orders in the USA in August have fallen on 0.2 % a month – and as a whole, and without the account transport and defensive; however, the prices too decreased – so anything terrible has not occurred yet. Business activity in States in September remained at growth levels, having surpassed expectations of analysts – but components of new orders in industrial sector and employment in sphere of services have left in a recession zone. The same indicator of Canada has decreased – but confidently remained in the field of expansion. Expenses on building in the USA in August have won back a case of July; in Canada building licences in the same month have fallen off on 10.4 % after compression on 0.4 % one month earlier. The index of consumer comfort in the USA from Blumberg hardly has departed from a minimum from crisis peaks – but remains is close to it. The applicant According to, in September planned dismissals were maximum since April, 2009 (growth more than three times besides to month 2010) – however, two thirds of result had on reductions in army and in Bank of America; the desire to employ the personnel for last year has decreased almost for 40 % – labour market crisis is obvious. The national federation of small-scale business says that dismissals go the fourth month successively – on the average on 0.3 persons on firm. In Canada in September employment has grown, and unemployment has fallen; in the USA the report is spoilt by the individual factor (August strikers have returned to work) – from here exotic like joint growth of employment and unemployment; the widest rate of unemployment (U6, those here enter unoccupied whom Ministry of Labor as those does not consider) has grown from 16.2 % to 16.5 %; indicators застойности unemployments have swelled – and average time of unsuccessful job search has reached record peak. The institute of studying of business cycles is assured that recession approaches – till now its preventions into this account were exact, so there are no bases not to trust them and now.

Source: Bureau of labour statistics of the USA

Russia. According to Rosstatu, gross national product in April-June has grown on 3.4 % a year (by our estimations – more poorly twice); final consumption of households вспухло on 6.6 % thanks to credit boom; total accumulation has flied up on 17.8 % though investments into fixed capital have added only 5.0 % - the fair contribution to a final analysis has brought growth of not sold stocks in warehouses. In September consumer prices have not changed by August and have increased by 7.2 % by September, 2010 – in avant-guard, as always, utilities. With approach of autumn programs of stimulation and effect of low base of last summer – VAZ sales in September отросли only on 0.3 % a year though as a whole for 9 months of this year they have raised on 19.8 % have run low. In August death rate has fallen – as it is clear against horrors of year prescription; pleases, however, that birth rate has grown – but as a whole for January-August decrease in both indicators is noted. The index of business activity in September has given to level of May (the decrease second successively); Indicator PMI has stopped exactly on a mark 50 dividing growth and recession – however, new orders and employment already fall. The heads react to crisis arrival rather nervously: Putin at an investment forum has suggested "not to force" – a pier, there will be no recession, there will be only a growth delay. At the same time it has burst in article where has suggested to create the Euroasian union – as spitpoisons have noted, this megaidea will have only наноэффект. Other scoffers откомментировали congress of EdRo: "Medvedev has suggested Putin to offer Medvedev Putin's nominee on Medvedev's post" – here after all изгаляются enemies of the people!

However friends of the people do not lag behind also:" We "have decided to arrange colourful performance to birthday of the prime minister – to rise number 59 and to sing a song of a crocodile Genes. And in real life power ratings fall – moreover, even Putin's rating not блещет so its separation from abstract"opposition candidate"is minimum for many years; popularity of ministers decreases. Malicious citizens have found a way to bypass censorship – they began to write slogans directly on money: in Chelyabinsk have appeared сторублёвки with an inscription" Putin – the party leader of swindlers and thieves "– but the Bank of Russia will withdraw them from a turn (probably, for extremism). There are also more gloomy examples of perception of the power – the court enforcement officer, among other participating in a housebreaking in settlement Rechnik is killed: evil tongues are surprised profitablenesses of a trade – the 28-year-old police officer wore watch Rolex and there went by the car the Navigator of the Lincoln. For a bribe in 3 million Dollars it is arrested the inspector from "the list Magnitsky" – madam was going to close for a considerable bribe "business about tomographs", to open which the president swore personally: as we see, the head of the state openly ignore all – превед, Medved! Even more ingenuously Chechen адвокатесса – she has personally written a false judgement on which hoped to receive from the Minister of Defence of 1 billion roubles. Putin's Press Secretary has informed that catching by the prime minister of amphoras, certainly, statement; also that Brezhnev it is very good, and stagnation is not terrible. On such background attempt of descendants of Ryurik dynasty is only amusing to seize the Kremlin at its present inhabitants – the court in the answer has declared that the claimant "has not proved infringement of the rights".

Illustration: Артём Priests, Ah Ti Invest

Habits of the authorities are disgusting. Election campaign of EdRo is financed by businessmen who for this purpose will include in regional lists – on the average everyone will unfasten 5 million euro. There are also specific characters: under the certificate of politician Evgenie Rojzmana, the Tadjik drug mafia заимела the representative among advisers of EdRo and as the organisation has entirely entered in ОНФ. The head of Ministry of Transport Levitin has given birth fresh (after paid roads) to an innovation: he wants to cut down number of refuellings along lines at 10-15 time – say, disturb majestic прожектам! In the centre of Vladivostok Eternal fire have disconnected for debts on gas; because of it it was necessary to send the American seamen who have arrived on an opportunity hastily for putting on of wreaths to other monument. Businessman Polonsky has gone on hunger strike – and against it have brought an action, for starving was on a disputable building site and used foul language on competitors, officials and policemen: the last have taken offence. And the first vice-president of the head of Bank of Russia Uljukaev has paid a tribute графомании – having published verses of own manufacturing: in places verses sound exotically. Football club Anzhi tries to entice to itself trainer Mourinho – to it have offered 90 million euro for 3 years: the Dagestan soul is generous! It is generous also Chechen – its owner Ramzan Kadyrov has ingenuously responded to a question on prosperity sources: "the Allah gives. I do not know. Money" Whence undertakes – it is necessary to assume that вайнахи has invented the fresh version of Islam where the prophet of the Allah is not habitual Magomet, but actual Putin, after all last actually is a source of the Chechen well-being. Well and how to you all this pre-election Decameron? And after all to elections even 2 months!

Good to you of week!

Source: itinvest.ru